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Sunday, July 20, 2008

choose dealer : RECENT INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

Some significant changes, both positive and negative, took place in the FOREX trading world over the past few years. First let me mention three positive changes:
1. By the year 2006 the industry of FOREX trading had become more government regulated in the United States. Nowadays, the NFA regulates most of the dealers and introducing brokers conducting business in the United States, including foreign dealing companies providing services to U.S. customers. So, now the probability for a trader or an investor to become a fraud victim has greatly decreased.
2. Stronger competition among numerous dealing companies has made them offer their customers better services that include more sophisticated trading software, lower spreads, and faster and more accurate trade execution.
3. Reputable dealers now offer their customers the opportunity to trade contracts as small as $10,000. This is good for beginners, who today can make real trades without risking too much money while learning the business.
However, along with positive changes there also were two negative ones:
First, the same competition among dealers that improved quality of their services overall led to the situation that now almost every dealer could be considered a bucket shop. Today the dealers routinely trade against their customers, especially those individuals with smaller trading
capital. In order to increase their revenues, some of the larger dealers on a daily basis carry an uncovered exposure totaling well over $100 million of the positions taken by their customers. At first glance it seems that there shouldn’t be a problem. The rule of the game is that the house must always win and there are reasons to believe that most of the clients’ trading capital sooner or later ends up in the dealer’s pocket anyway, pretty much like in the gambling industry. (Dealers’ back office statistics show that approximately 60 percent of their clients’ total trading capital is being lost in trading annually.) However, unlike in the casino business where the house
is always able to control each and every aspect of the game, there could be some very dramatic and fast changes in the market that wouldn’t allow the dealer to cover its exposure before it becomes too late. Unexpected, almost instantaneous, and sizeable shifts in currency exchange quotes could be damaging to the point where a dealer would not be able to fulfill its financial obligations toward its customers. The other change that I consider to be rather negative is the trend of most dealers lowering their margin requirements. Today it is quite possible to find a dealer offering to its customers a margin as low as 0.5 percent. Dealers present low-margin trading as an opportunity for customers to achieve greater profitability with smaller investment capital. It is true, but trading on full leverage also could easily cause the loss of the entire trading capital in a single trade in a matter of minutes. It looks like trading in the financial market is turning into a casino-style business, which is not good in my view.

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